Dr. Amer Obeidi
Universtiy of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Department of Management Sciences

Perceptual Graphs Models for Interdependent Strategic Decisions with Asymmetrical Outcomes

Perceptual graphs and meta-stability analysis are two analytical methodologies developed to model and analyse multiple-participant and multiple-objective decision situations characterized with asymmetry in preferences, perceptions and information. A perceptual graph is based on the way a decision maker forms a mental representation of an interactive and interdependent strategic situation, or a conflict. The main ingredients of each graph are: key decision makers (DMs) who can affect outcomes in the conflict, perceived outcomes, DMs' preferences over these outcomes, and DMs' awareness of any inconsistent perceptions with other DMs over these outcomes. A graph model system, on the other hand, is a consolidation of all DMs' perceptual graphs, taking into account their possible variants of awareness. Meta-stability analysis is then applied by analyzing each graph model from the point of view of its owner, for every focal DM present in the model. New stability definitions are defined to improve stability analysis algorithm of outcomes. Of interest to us are blindsided and limited perception stability concepts, which emphasise the importance of information in achieving a strategic advantage or avoiding a strategic disadvantage in conflict. The objective of these analytical methodologies is to integrate both the descriptive and prescriptive viewpoints in conflict and provide actionable advice to decision and policy makers to move the conflict toward desired outcomes.